Growth projections for developing Asia are revised down from those in March as slower-than-expected recovery in the United States and moderating growth in the People’s Republic of China weigh on the region's prospects.
The region is now projected to grow at 6.1% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016, downgrades of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from ADO 2015 forecasts. Growth projections are revised down for East and Southeast Asia for both years. In Central Asia and the Pacific, forecasts are unchanged for 2015, but for 2016 slightly downgraded for Central Asia and upgraded for the Pacific, and for South Asia upgraded for 2015 and retained for 2016.
Highlights
•With the United States contracting in the first quarter and some underperformance within Asia and the Pacific, growth forecasts for developing Asia are adjusted down from those published in Asian Development Outlook 2015. This Supplement envisages aggregate growth in the region at 6.1% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016.
•As growth in the People’s Republic of China was slower than expected in the first half of the year, projections for the region’s largest economy are revised down to 7.0% in 2015 and 6.8% in 2016. The weaker external environment means East Asia as a whole is now expected to grow by a slower 6.2% in both 2015 and 2016.
•India’s growth forecasts remain at 7.8% for this fiscal year and 8.2% for next, supported by a healthy monsoon and new investment—and assuming concrete progress on reform. South Asia will grow by 7.3% in 2015, as a strong outturn in Bangladesh outweighs a disaster-induced slowdown in Nepal, and by 7.6% in 2016.
•The growth outlook in Southeast Asia is trimmed to 4.6% in 2015 because outcomes in the first half of the year in Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand disappointed expectations. Subregional growth will likely accelerate next year to 5.1%.
•Low international food and fuel prices are containing inflation this year. Developing Asia’s inflation forecast is revised down slightly to 2.4% in 2015 but retained at 3.0% in 2016.
About the Asian Development Outlook
The Asian Development Outlook is ADB’s main economic forecasting product. It is published each March/April with an update published in September and brief supplements published in July and December.
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